Can steel prices continue to be strong as the hott

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Can steel prices continue to be strong near the traditional peak season

on August 29, the domestic steel market was strong and volatile. Among the 25 major cities, the price of rebar rose by yuan/ton in 5 cities including Fuzhou, Beijing and Nanchang, and most cities stayed on the sidelines to maintain stability; The price of hot coil in 14 cities including Hangzhou, Guangzhou, Tianjin and Chongqing increased by yuan/ton; The price of medium and heavy plate in Hangzhou, Beijing, Wu'an and other seven cities increased by yuan/ton

on the 29th, the ex factory price of Tangshan ordinary square billet including tax rose by 30 to 3730 yuan/ton. On the same day, Tangshan finished products stabilized and tended to rise. The adjustment: Tangshan small narrow band rose, and the mainstream reported 4020; Tangshan section steel angle held steady, channel steel rose, and now the mainstream quotation I-shaped, channel steel, angle steel 4230; The thread is three big, three small and rising

on the 29th, the trend of black futures was differentiated, the main futures of rebar and hot coil operated in shock, and the main futures of iron ore, coke and coking coal fell in shock. The main snail in the first two cycles rose and fell rapidly, and rose and fell sharply, increasing the fluctuation range of the steel spot market. At present, the trend direction is still unclear, and the futures snail is still in a positive shock pattern

steel spot market

construction steel: on August 29, the average price of HRB400 (20mm) deformed steel bars in 25 major cities across the country was 4208 yuan/ton, which should be able to accurately adjust the price by 5 yuan/ton compared with the speed of the 1.9 experimental machine on the previous trading day within the limits of the rules. According to the actual feedback, due to the obvious decline of futures snails, the spot transactions throughout the day were more general, and the merchants' quotations were secretly reduced. It is expected that domestic construction steel will maintain a narrow consolidation operation tomorrow

hot rolled coil: on August 29, the price of 4.75mm hot rolled coil in 24 markets nationwide was reported at 4184 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. At present, there are relatively few inventory resources in the market, and the ordering price of steel mills is still high, which has a certain support for the market price. However, at present, the demand is relatively weak, and it is difficult to deal with high-priced resources. It is expected that the hot rolling market price will fluctuate tomorrow

cold rolled coil: on August 29, the average price of 1.0mm cold rolled coil in 24 major cities across the country was 4754 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton from the previous transaction price. At present, the market fluctuation is relatively obvious, and the trend in the later stage is not clear. The idea of cash out of some businesses with existing profits appears, and it is expected to maintain the shock adjustment pattern in the short term

medium and heavy plate: on August 29, the average price of medium and heavy plate in 24 major cities across the country was 4034 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Steel mills' pricing is still strong today, and some northern steel mills' early locking prices have increased by yuan/ton, and the cost support is still strong. However, the downstream demand is relatively weak, with many market inquiries but limited actual procurement. It is expected that the market price of medium and heavy plate will fluctuate tomorrow

raw material spot market

imported ore: on August 29, 61.5% of Australia's fine ore in Jingtang Port was reported at 585 yuan/ton, It gradually approaches 20% of the rated load compared with the previous one (for example, 20% of the 2000kN press was 400.0kn, and the daily price fell by 10 yuan/ton. The arrival situation in Tangshan region has improved, the port dredging has slowed down, the inventory has increased slightly, the support of iron ore spot price has weakened, and the ore price may be weak and volatile.

coke: on the 29th, the domestic coke spot market operated smoothly, and the market trading atmosphere was good. The secondary mainstream ex factory tax price of Shanxi coke market is yuan/ton; the ex factory tax of Hebei Handan secondary metallurgical coke is 201 yuan 0 yuan/ton; The mainstream ex factory price of secondary coke in Wuhai area includes tax yuan/ton; The coke market in East China now has a secondary mainstream ex factory price including tax of yuan/ton. The purchasing sentiment of steel mills fluctuated slightly, but the high level of blast furnace operation still kept the rigid demand, and the domestic coke market still had the ability to continue to move in the short term

scrap: on the 29th, the scrap market was temporarily stable and the transaction was general. At present, the price of heavy waste in Jiangsu is maintained at yuan/ton; The price of heavy waste in Shandong is yuan/ton. The transaction price of heavy waste including tax in Fujian market is yuan/ton. The tax inclusive price of heavy waste in Hubei is basically RMB/ton. Heavy waste in Shanxi Province includes tax yuan/ton. The price of heavy waste including tax in Hebei is yuan/ton. The above are the factory arrival prices including tax

steel market forecast

according to monitoring, last week, the utilization rate of blast furnace capacity of 163 steel mills across the country was 91.18%, with a weekly increase of 1.57%, which remained between 89% and 90% in the previous few weeks. According to the latest data of CISA, the daily average crude steel output of key steel enterprises in early August was 1.868 million tons, with a slight increase of 16100 tons month on month

combined with the data of China Steel Association, the daily output of crude steel in August may be slightly higher than that of the previous month. Considering seasonal factors, the average daily output of crude steel in September may still have room to rise, but the capacity utilization rate has been at a historical high, and the increment may still be limited

according to monitoring, the trading volume of building materials of mainstream traders in China fluctuated steadily in July and August, with a slight increase year-on-year. On the one hand, the growth rate of real estate and infrastructure investment is higher than that of the same period last year, and investment drives the growth of building materials demand. On the other hand, the manufacturing industry generally recovered this year, especially the production and sales of construction machinery increased significantly, and the plate consumption also showed a positive trend

the traditional off-season demand performance in this month is not weak, which is inseparable from the stability and improvement of the economy. However, the traditional peak season in September should not be overly optimistic. Steel consumption may not increase significantly. First of all, the "stability" of the domestic economy is still the main tone, and the vitality of private investment is still insufficient. The government pays more attention to "making up for weaknesses and deleveraging", and the economic growth rate may fall slightly in the second half of the year. Secondly, since June, the domestic steel price has gradually risen, breaking the new high in the year, causing the resistance of downstream steel enterprises, and the raw material inventory has remained low

according to monitoring, the steel inventory of the sample steel plant last week was 4.773 million tons, down 2.9% on a weekly basis, hitting the second lowest weekly level in the year, only higher than the 4.647 million tons in the first week of August. According to the data of China Steel Association, the steel inventory of key steel enterprises in the first ten days of August was 12.224 million tons, down 5.6% from the same period last month, at the second low level in ten days of the year. I basically agree with the data of the Steel Association. If the expansion length of the table is insufficient, it shows that the steel plant has little sales pressure, which also leads to its relatively strong price adjustment

at present, the wait-and-see mentality of the steel market is still strong. On the one hand, due to the high price level of steel, the lack of downstream purchasing power, the willingness of middlemen to stock goods is not strong, and the recent transaction performance in the spot market is average. On the other hand, the steel inventory is still low, and subject to the high cost of taking goods, dealers have little room for price reduction. In the short term, the steel market may continue to fluctuate

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