Hidden worries behind the strength of the hottest

2022-08-13
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Glass: there are hidden worries behind the strength

the glass spot market in the winter of 2016 was also "not too cold" as the weather, and the inventory of production enterprises was still decreasing until the end of December, which was in sharp contrast to the increase of inventory in 2015 from the end of October. Although low inventory provides support for glass prices, there are certain risks in both supply and demand side and cost side after the holiday, and it is expected that the price will not remain high for a long time. In terms of operation, it is obviously inappropriate to catch up with more in the case of high water rise in futures

the seasonal law of spot goods is difficult to change

although glass performed well in 2016, it is difficult to avoid the law of seasonal decline in demand during the Spring Festival. In January 2017, downstream demand gradually decreased and enterprise inventory began to increase. From January 10, the early strong spot price began to callback. On January 12, the price reduction of safety glass factory opened the prelude of Shahe spot price callback. As of the 18th, the minimum spot price of Shahe delivery warehouse has been reduced from 1270 yuan/ton to 1190 yuan/ton

as the Spring Festival approaches, the glass downstream processing enterprises basically shut down, and the current demand mainly comes from the winter storage of traders. It is understood that the ideal winter storage price of Shahe traders is 1100-1150 yuan/ton, but the current spot price has not reached the ideal price of traders. Therefore, the factory price reduction has not stimulated traders' enthusiasm for goods preparation. Personally, I think it will take a few years to form a technical product in which graphene plays an important or decisive role. However, considering the high cost, manufacturers are not willing to further reduce prices. Due to the good cash flow in 2016 and the low capital pressure of enterprises, some manufacturers will choose to stock up appropriately to wait for the demand to pick up after the year, but doing so is equivalent to putting all market risks in their own hands. If the market after the holiday is not as expected, enterprises will face greater price risks. Shahe spot prices will remain stable and weak before the Spring Festival, and the possibility of further reduction cannot be ruled out

the trend of futures and spot then inspected the internal shortcomings of these samples. Deviation

while the spot fell, the trend of futures was strong, and there was a short-term deviation between the trend of futures and spot. There are three main reasons: first, the decline in spot prices conforms to the seasonal law and does not significantly exceed expectations. At present, the premium of futures over spot prices is 100-110 yuan/ton, which belongs to the normal range; Secondly, the spot performance in 2016 and the strong price of soda ash make the market not pessimistic about the spot market in the first quarter of 2017; Finally, the national development and Reform Commission once again mentioned "de capacity" and "expansion", which further ignited the enthusiasm to do long in the industrial market. Glass is also affected by the market sentiment, and the trend is strong

it is difficult to accurately judge the demand after the Spring Festival. According to seasonal factors, the earliest demand recovery is after the 15th day of the first month, that is, the middle of February. Since the second half of 2016, the production capacity has increased significantly (the current production capacity has increased by about 8% compared with the low point in April). When there is no demand for half a month of the Spring Festival, the inventory increment of enterprises will be very large. If the demand after the holiday is not as good as expected (after all, the demand for real estate in 2017 is not optimistic), then even if the spot price does not fall before the holiday, it will have to fall after the holiday. At that time, futures can only choose to follow

the sharp rise of heavy soda ash in the second half of 2016 is an important driving force for the continuous rise of glass futures. Due to the Spring Festival stock of glass factories, the price of heavy alkali has been maintained at a high level. However, according to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, the output of soda ash in November last year has reached a new high for nearly three years. If the data published in December continues to maintain a high level (the data has not been published), the price of soda ash after the holiday may be corrected when the consumption of CPE is less than 60 shares. At least when the growth rate of glass production capacity slows down and the prices of raw materials such as coal fall, there is limited room for soda ash to continue to rise

conclusion

comprehensive analysis, although the positive expectations of the market for the post holiday period have supported the rise of glass futures against spot prices, there are certain risks in both the supply and demand side and the cost side after the holiday. It is obviously inappropriate to catch up with more in the case of high water rise in futures. It is better to wait for the expected realization or falsification before choosing the direction. For factories or traders, in order to avoid the price risk after the holiday, they can appropriately maintain a certain proportion of their own inventory. After all, the current futures premium spot is a good opportunity for hedging

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